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Elections, geopolitics and government decisions: Polymarket probabilities analyzed daily.
Prediction markets involve risk of capital loss and may not be legal in your jurisdiction. 18+ only. PolyVeritas is not affiliated with Polymarket and does not invite you to trade.
Prediction markets involve risk of capital loss and may not be legal in your jurisdiction. 18+ only. PolyVeritas is not affiliated with Polymarket and does not invite you to trade.
Prediction markets involve risk of capital loss and may not be legal in your jurisdiction. 18+ only. PolyVeritas is not affiliated with Polymarket and does not invite you to trade.
Polymarket gives a 95.8% probability that Xi Jinping will remain in power through 2026. Recent official engagements and party consolidation support this view, but risks from internal purges and health issues remain.
Our prediction
No 97% · confidence high
Analysis of Polymarket's prediction on whether Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal by December 31, 2026. Current data shows traffic far below the 60-ship threshold, with persistent geopolitical risks.
Our prediction
No 85% · confidence high
Polymarket gives only 4.5% probability that exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi will physically enter Iran by June 30, 2026. Our analysis, based on recent sources, estimates a 2% chance, citing regime hostility, security risks, and lack of credible path.
Our prediction
No 98% · confidence high
Polymarket traders see an 17.5% chance of Bab el-Mandeb Strait being effectively closed (7-day avg ≤10 transits) by Dec 31, 2026. Escalating Houthi attacks and Iran war context drive risk, but we estimate a 25% probability due to continued military responses.
Our prediction
December 31 25% · confidence medium
Polymarket gives a 9% chance Israel will close its airspace by September 30, 2026. Diplomatic efforts and current open skies make closure unlikely, but escalation risks persist.
Our prediction
September 30 10% · confidence low
Polymarket traders assign only an 11.2% combined probability that Kharg Island will fall from Iranian control by any of the three specified dates (Aug 31, Sep 30, Dec 31). Despite a US blockade and strikes, no ground invasion has occurred, and Iran maintains military control.
Our prediction
December 31 3% · confidence medium
Polymarket data shows a 51.6% probability that Elon Musk posted 260-279 tweets on X between August 14-21, 2026. Our analysis, considering recent news activity and historical patterns, estimates a 55% chance for this outcome.
Our prediction
260-279 55% · confidence medium
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral runoff between incumbent Karen Bass and challenger Nithya Raman is underway, with Polymarket favoring Bass at 64.5%. A recent fake poll controversy briefly roiled the race, but the fundamentals remain stable ahead of the November 3 election.
Our prediction
Karen Bass 65% · confidence medium
Prediction market shows only 6.5% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by Sept 30. Analysis of recent news—including an ongoing U.S.-Iran stalemate, a ship attack, and stalled ceasefire negotiations—supports a 'No' outcome with high confidence.
Our prediction
No 95% · confidence high
Polymarket gives a 5.5% probability that Donald Trump will leave office before 2027, via resignation, removal, or sustained 25th Amendment invocation. Our analysis estimates a 4% chance, citing low approval, legal challenges, and political stability.
Our prediction
No 96% · confidence high
Byron Donalds is the overwhelming favorite to win the Florida Republican gubernatorial primary, with Polymarket giving him a 99.1% probability. The market reflects strong polling leads and Trump's endorsement, though the primary is still competitive on paper.
Our prediction
Byron Donalds 98% · confidence high
Polymarket's 'Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?' market shows an 88% implied probability of no agreement by year-end 2026. The most likely date for a potential deal is December 31 at 7.5%, but recent news suggests Iran is unwilling to permanently surrender its stockpile.
Our prediction
December 31 5% · confidence low
Polymarket assigns 67.8% to no senior-level US-Iran peace talks by September 30. The analysis reviews the current deadlock, failed talks, and diplomatic efforts.
Our prediction
No Meeting by September 30 72% · confidence medium
Polymarket gives only a 10.8% chance the US will obtain Iranian enriched uranium by December 31, 2026. The most likely date is December 31 (7.5%), but ongoing war and diplomatic factors make possession uncertain.
Our prediction
December 31 5% · confidence low
Polymarket assigns a 3.8% probability to Trump acquiring Greenland before 2027. Recent events—including a failed oil drilling push, Greenland's stern warning, and lack of any formal agreement—support a near-certain 'No' outcome.
Our prediction
No 98% · confidence high
Polymarket bettors see a 31.5% chance of Mojtaba Khamenei losing power by June 30, 2027, amid a security reshuffle that exposes internal rifts. Recent appointments of Mohsen Rezaei and a military command integration suggest consolidation, but also signal underlying instability.
Our prediction
June 30, 2027 28% · confidence medium
Nigel Farage is the overwhelming favorite to win the Clacton by-election, with Polymarket pricing his probability at 99.1%. Despite a strong showing from novelty candidate Count Binface in polls (20%), the absence of major party opponents makes a Farage victory almost certain. The by-election is seen as a referendum on Farage’s ethics after a standards investigation.
Our prediction
Nigel Farage 98% · confidence high
Polymarket's 'Putin out as President of Russia by...?' market shows a 12.5% chance he leaves by June 30, 2027. Our analysis, based on recent intelligence, economic sanctions, and internal dissent, suggests this probability is overestimated, and we assign a 5% internal estimate.
Our prediction
June 30, 2027 5% · confidence low
