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Elections, geopolitics and government decisions: Polymarket probabilities analyzed daily.
Prediction markets involve risk of capital loss and may not be legal in your jurisdiction. 18+ only. PolyVeritas is not affiliated with Polymarket and does not invite you to trade.
Prediction markets involve risk of capital loss and may not be legal in your jurisdiction. 18+ only. PolyVeritas is not affiliated with Polymarket and does not invite you to trade.
Prediction markets involve risk of capital loss and may not be legal in your jurisdiction. 18+ only. PolyVeritas is not affiliated with Polymarket and does not invite you to trade.
Polymarket traders see a 23.5% chance of Iran fully closing its airspace by December 31, 2026, and 7.5% by October 31. Escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi airports and US sanctions on Iranian airlines increase tensions, but no new general closure has occurred since February. Our analysis estimates a 22% probability of a qualifying closure by year-end.
Our prediction
December 31 22% · confidence medium
Polymarket's prediction market for Elon Musk's tweet count from October 2-9, 2026 shows a 48% probability of 320-339 posts. Recent Starlink-related activity may influence the final count.
Our prediction
320-339 50% · confidence medium
California voters will decide on Proposition 40, a one-time 5% wealth tax on billionaires. Despite initial support, polls show it falling short of majority, and prediction markets give it only a 29% chance of passing.
Our prediction
No 75% · confidence medium
Polymarket assigns an 8.5% probability that Ukraine will recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027, and 3.3% by December 31, 2026. Current military and diplomatic evidence suggests no imminent breakthrough, keeping odds low.
Our prediction
June 30, 2027 5% · confidence low
Polymarket data shows a 40.5% probability that Justice Samuel Alito announces his retirement by June 30, 2027. This analysis examines the factors, risks, and uncertainties behind the market.
Our prediction
June 30, 2027 35% · confidence low
Polymarket traders assign a 93.5% probability that the US-Iran ceasefire continues through September 30. Despite Trump's rejection of Tehran's 7-day proposal, no imminent US strike is expected before the midterms, though risks remain elevated.
Our prediction
September 30 92% · confidence high
Polymarket assigns a 6% probability that Russia will invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026, and 0.3% by September 30, 2026. Recent intelligence warnings from Denmark and Poland highlight a growing but still low risk of limited military action, while full-scale invasion remains unlikely due to Russia's commitment in Ukraine.
Our prediction
December 31, 2026 5% · confidence low
Polymarket shows a 10.5% probability that CME Crude Oil futures will exceed $147.27 by December 31, 2026, and only 0.4% by September 30. Current WTI prices around $92 and easing supply fears make a record unlikely in the near term.
Our prediction
December 31 5% · confidence low
Polymarket gives Abiy Ahmed a 97.5% probability of remaining Prime Minister after the June 2026 elections, despite a new rebel alliance formed to oust him. Our analysis estimates a slightly lower 92% probability, given the escalating instability and the risk of a delayed or disrupted transition.
Our prediction
Abiy Ahmed 92% · confidence medium
The Polymarket event 'Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?' shows a 3.4% implied probability for invasion by end of 2025. Recent diplomatic and oil deals between the US and Venezuela, including a landmark agreement giving the US control of over 65 billion barrels of oil reserves, strongly reduce the likelihood of military conflict. Our analysis aligns with the market, estimating a 2% probability of invasion.
Our prediction
No 98% · confidence high
Polymarket's 'Next Prime Minister of Romania?' market shows Alexandru Nazare as favorite (33.9%) after Siegfried Mureșan's nomination was rejected by the Social Democrats. Our analysis suggests Nazare is the most likely outcome, with a 35% probability.
Our prediction
Alexandru Nazare 35% · confidence medium
Russia's 2026 parliamentary election is underway, with United Russia expected to retain its supermajority. Polymarket gives the ruling party a 99.8% chance of winning the most seats.
Our prediction
United Russia (ER) 98% · confidence high
The Berlin state election on September 20, 2026, sees the Left Party (Linke) as the frontrunner according to Polymarket, with a 66.5% probability of winning the most seats. The CDU trails at 26.5%, while the far-right AfD is an outsider at 6.2%.
Our prediction
Linke 60% · confidence medium
The Polymarket event 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...?' shows a 100% probability of a 14-day pause starting by September 30, 2026. However, recent reports indicate that ceasefire talks are stalled and fighting continues, making a sustained pause unlikely in the near term.
Our prediction
No 70% · confidence medium
Polymarket gives a 15.5% probability that the Israel-Hamas ceasefire will be cancelled by October 31, 2025. Our analysis, based on recent Israeli strikes, ongoing violations, and diplomatic efforts, estimates a lower 10% chance, as both sides appear reluctant to formally end the truce despite tensions.
Our prediction
No 90% · confidence medium
Polymarket shows Democrats with a 53.5% chance of winning the Senate in 2026, while Republicans stand at 47.5%. Recent polls and analysis indicate a toss-up race, with Democrats gaining momentum in key states like Texas, Maine, and Michigan.
Our prediction
Democratic Party 55% · confidence medium
Polymarket gives an 11% probability that a verified Epstein client list will be released by December 31, 2025. Our analysis, based on recent DOJ unresponsiveness, ongoing litigation, and political dynamics, estimates a lower 5% chance.
Our prediction
October 31 5% · confidence medium
Polymarket traders see a 35.5% chance that exiled Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado will enter Venezuela by December 31, 2026, and a 17% chance by September 30. The market reflects uncertainty around her safety and political timing amid a controversial US oil deal with the interim government.
Our prediction
December 31 40% · confidence medium
