What is the Polymarket event about?

It asks whether Israel or Hamas will formally cancel the ceasefire by October 31, 2025. The current probability of cancellation is 15.5%.

Has the ceasefire been violated?

Yes, both sides accuse each other of violations. Israeli strikes have killed over 1,300 Palestinians since the ceasefire began, but no formal cancellation has occurred.

What would cause the ceasefire to be cancelled?

A formal announcement by Israel or Hamas, or a consensus of credible reporting that the ceasefire is no longer in effect. Violations alone are not enough.

Why is the probability of cancellation low?

Both sides benefit from avoiding full-scale war, and diplomatic efforts by the US and UN continue. The high bar for formal cancellation also reduces the likelihood.

What are the main risks to the ceasefire?

Major escalation, political changes in Israel, US policy shifts, or Hamas rearming could lead to cancellation. However, these are currently not imminent.

How does the Trump plan affect the ceasefire?

Trump's plan for Hamas disarmament and Israeli withdrawal remains unconfirmed by both parties. Lack of progress could increase tensions, but has not yet led to cancellation.

Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Cancelled by Oct 31? Analysis

Polymarket gives a 15.5% probability that the Israel-Hamas ceasefire will be cancelled by October 31, 2025. Our analysis, based on recent Israeli strikes, ongoing violations, and diplomatic efforts, estimates a lower 10% chance, as both sides appear reluctant to formally end the truce despite tensions.

This analysis was produced with AI assistance and reviewed by the PolyVeritas editorial team.

In brief

The Polymarket event 'Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?' asks whether either party will formally cancel the ceasefire by October 31, 2025. Current odds stand at 15.5% for cancellation. Despite ongoing Israeli strikes and mutual accusations of violations, no formal cancellation has occurred, and diplomatic efforts continue.

Introduction

On October 9, 2025, Israel and Hamas signed a US-backed ceasefire deal that halted large-scale fighting in Gaza. However, the truce remains fragile, with periodic Israeli strikes, Hamas rearming, and political tensions. This analysis examines the likelihood that either side formally cancels the ceasefire by the October 31, 2025 deadline, based on verified sources and Polymarket data.

What to know

The ceasefire, signed in October 2025, was intended to end major combat operations. However, as of September 2026, the situation remains tense. According to Al Arabiya (Sept 13, 2026), an Israeli strike killed two people in Gaza, with Hamas accusing Israel of violating the ceasefire. Israel claims Hamas has been violating the deal. More than 1,300 Palestinians have been killed since the ceasefire took effect, according to Gaza health officials.

The Jerusalem Post (Sept 9, 2026) reports that Hamas is working to reclaim weaponry and reestablish military control, despite a disarmament agreement. Meanwhile, the US has rejected Israeli suggestions of removing Palestinians from Gaza, as reported by Al Jazeera (Sept 4, 2026). The UN Security Council discussed rising tensions in August 2026, with the UN Special Envoy stressing the fragility of the ceasefire (UN News, Aug 26, 2026).

President Trump's broader peace plan, including Hamas disarmament and Israeli withdrawal, remains unconfirmed by either party, according to Quincy Institute (Sept 10, 2026). The Politico (Aug 18, 2026) notes skepticism about significant progress by October 27.

The market numbers

Outcome	Implied Probability
Ceasefire cancelled by Oct 31	15.5%
Ceasefire not cancelled by Oct 31	84.5%

Total volume: $4,063,559.197. Total liquidity: $10,735.879. Market closes January 1, 2027.

The factors at play

Ongoing violence: Israeli strikes and mutual accusations of violations continue, but neither side has formally cancelled the ceasefire.
Diplomatic pressure: The US and UN are actively engaged in maintaining the truce, reducing the likelihood of a formal cancellation.
Political dynamics: Israeli elections and internal politics may influence decisions, but both sides seem to prefer the current fragile peace over a return to full-scale war.
Hamas rearming: Reports of Hamas reclaiming weaponry could provoke Israeli retaliation, but not necessarily a formal cancellation.
Trump plan uncertainty: Lack of progress on broader peace terms may increase frustration, but formal cancellation remains a high bar.

Our prediction

According to our analysis, the most likely outcome is No (ceasefire not cancelled by Oct 31). Polymarket currently assigns a probability of 84.5% to this outcome, while our internal estimate is 90%. The difference stems from these factors: the high bar for formal cancellation (requires official announcement or consensus of credible reporting), ongoing diplomatic efforts, and the mutual interest in avoiding a return to full-scale war. However, the risk of escalation remains non-negligible.

Risks and uncertainties

Major escalation: A large-scale Israeli operation or Hamas attack could trigger a formal cancellation.
Political change: A new Israeli government could adopt a harder line.
US policy shift: A change in US administration or policy could alter incentives.
Misinterpretation: The market's resolution criteria require clear cancellation, not just violations.

Conclusion

The ceasefire remains fragile but has not been formally cancelled. Our analysis suggests a low probability of cancellation by October 31, 2025, given the current diplomatic and military dynamics. The Polymarket market's 15.5% probability for cancellation appears slightly overestimated, but the risk is real.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, political or investment advice, betting advice, or any operational recommendation.

Israel-Hamas Ceasefire: Will It Hold Until Oct 31?