PolyVeritas
How we make our predictions
Every PolyVeritas prediction follows the same documented process. We publish it because a forecast is only as trustworthy as the method behind it — and because we want ours to be auditable.
1. Market data
We start from the live Polymarket data of the event: outcomes, implied probabilities, volume and liquidity, recorded with the date of retrieval. The market price is the collective judgment of people risking real money — our reference point, not our conclusion.
2. Source gathering and weighting
We search recent coverage of the event and assign every source a credibility score. Recognized outlets and primary/official sources score highest; unfamiliar domains are individually evaluated; low-credibility content is discarded. An analysis is marked as cross-verified only when at least two independent domains — including one high-credibility source — support it.
3. Analysis and internal estimate
An AI-assisted editorial pipeline combines market numbers with the verified sources to produce the analysis, under strict rules: no data may be invented, every factual claim must be linked to its source, and uncertainty must be stated. The output includes our internal probability estimate for the most likely outcome, which may differ from the market's — the article must explain why.
4. Confidence level
Each prediction carries a confidence level (low, medium, high). If cross-verification fails or sources are thin, confidence is capped at low regardless of how strong the market signal looks. Internal estimates are never published as certainties: they are bounded between 2% and 98%.
5. Public tracking
Every prediction is stored with its date, the market probability and our estimate at publication time. When the market resolves, the outcome is recorded and our running accuracy updates on the predictions page. Misses are not deleted — they are part of the record.
Limits, transparency and conflicts of interest
Our content is produced with AI assistance under editorial review, and it can be wrong. Prediction markets themselves can be wrong. Nothing on this site is financial, political or betting advice: it is analysis, published with its uncertainty attached. Conflict of interest policy: the PolyVeritas editorial team does not hold positions on the markets it analyzes at the time of publication; should this ever change, the position will be disclosed in the article itself.