Category
Rates, crypto, inflation and macro: what Polymarket traders are pricing in, with verified sources.
Prediction markets involve risk of capital loss and may not be legal in your jurisdiction. 18+ only. PolyVeritas is not affiliated with Polymarket and does not invite you to trade.
Prediction markets involve risk of capital loss and may not be legal in your jurisdiction. 18+ only. PolyVeritas is not affiliated with Polymarket and does not invite you to trade.
Prediction markets involve risk of capital loss and may not be legal in your jurisdiction. 18+ only. PolyVeritas is not affiliated with Polymarket and does not invite you to trade.
Anthropic is widely expected to go public by the end of 2026, with Polymarket assigning a 74.5% probability to an IPO by December 31. Recent reports suggest a November listing, but risks remain.
Our prediction
December 31, 2026 80% · confidence medium
Polymarket's Bitcoin October 2026 event assigns a 70.5% probability that BTC will reach $85,000. Given that Bitcoin already touched $86,000 earlier this month and institutional interest remains strong, our internal estimate is 75%.
Our prediction
↑ 85,000 75% · confidence medium
This article analyzes the Polymarket event on the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of the Extended token one day after launch. The market offers multiple FDV thresholds, with the highest probability assigned to $150M (66.5%). Our analysis suggests the most likely outcome is $150M, with a 70% internal estimate.
Our prediction
$150M 70% · confidence medium
Ethereum has surged past $2,600 in mid-September 2026, driven by whale buying and short squeeze. Polymarket data gives a 74.5% chance of ETH reaching $2,700 by month-end. Our analysis supports this high probability, with a 90% internal estimate, though risks include Fed rate hikes and regulatory uncertainty.
Our prediction
↑ 2,700 90% · confidence high
Polymarket traders are nearly split on whether the Fed will hike 25 bps in October 2026 (49.5% Yes, 48.5% No). Goldman Sachs reversed its call to expect another hike, and the Fed's dot plot median points to one more increase this year. However, Warsh kept options open, leaving uncertainty.
Our prediction
25 bps increase 55% · confidence medium
Polymarket traders assign a 91.3% probability to WTI hitting $105 in September 2026, driven by Middle East escalation and supply fears. However, record US production and potential de-escalation talks pose downside risks.
Our prediction
↑ $105 85% · confidence medium
Bitcoin faces a turbulent September 2026 with odds on Polymarket suggesting a 75.5% probability it will drop below $75,000. A recent $320 million hack on the Liquid Network and rising Fed rate hike fears are weighing on sentiment, though a key CPI report could shift momentum.
Our prediction
↓ 75,000 65% · confidence medium
Anthropic is targeting a $2 trillion valuation in its upcoming IPO, but recent copyright lawsuits and fixed capacity commitments pose risks. Polymarket gives a 77% probability of hitting $2T by year-end, but our analysis suggests a lower likelihood due to legal and financial headwinds.
Our prediction
↑$2.0T 65% · confidence medium
Polymarket assigns a 70.3% probability that Ethereum reaches $2,600 in August 2026. The market has rallied sharply on the back of the US Treasury's bond buyback announcement, the push for the Clarity Act, and institutional inflows. However, overbought signals and a potential pullback introduce risk.
Our prediction
↑ 2,600 75% · confidence medium
Polymarket odds show Bitcoin has an 85% chance of hitting $65,000 in August 2026, with lower probabilities for higher targets. Our analysis, based on recent news and market data, predicts the most likely outcome is Bitcoin reaching $65,000, though downside risks remain.
Our prediction
↑ 65,000 75% · confidence medium
Polymarket traders assign an 81% probability to WTI crude oil touching $75 in August 2026, and 77% for $80. Our analysis finds the market fairly valued for $75 but sees upside risk for $80 due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply constraints.
Our prediction
↓ $75 85% · confidence medium
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R.3633) faces steep odds of becoming law in 2026, with Polymarket traders pricing in a 28.5% chance. Senate ethics disputes and the looming August recess have stalled progress, making lame-duck passage the only remaining window.
Our prediction
No 85% · confidence medium
Polymarket assigns only 8.5% probability to a MetaMask token launch by December 31, 2026, and 1.7% by September 30, 2026. Recent news of Consensys shelving IPO plans until fall 2026 suggests the company is not prioritizing a token launch, reinforcing low market expectations.
Our prediction
December 31, 2026 5% · confidence low
Polymarket traders give a 38.5% probability that Puffpaw's fully diluted valuation will exceed $50M one day after token launch. Higher thresholds have lower odds, reflecting uncertainty about the project's market reception.
Our prediction
$50M 39% · confidence low
Polymarket traders assign a 94.5% probability that Satoshi Nakamoto will not move any Bitcoin in 2026. No verified outflows from labeled wallets have been recorded, and multiple factors suggest the coins will remain dormant.
Our prediction
No 98% · confidence high
Polymarket data shows a 46.8% probability that Ethereum will trade below $1,800 in July 2026. The market is heavily skewed toward the downside, with the next most likely outcome being a rise to $2,000 at 18.5%. Key factors include the upcoming Fed rate decision and recent technical resistance near $1,950.
Our prediction
↓ 1,800 55% · confidence medium
Polymarket gives a 66.5% probability that Base will launch a token by December 31, 2027. Our analysis, based on limited direct sources, estimates a 60% chance, citing favorable regulatory signals but high uncertainty.
Our prediction
December 31, 2027 60% · confidence low
Polymarket predicts a 76.5% chance that the largest company by market cap on July 31, 2026, will be NVIDIA, but recent events show Apple has overtaken Nvidia. Our analysis favors Apple, with a 55% probability, due to recent market moves and upcoming earnings catalysts.
Our prediction
NVIDIA 55% · confidence medium
