In brief
According to Polymarket, there is an 11% chance that Hamas officially announced disarmament by December 31, 2025. However, all credible sources confirm that no such announcement occurred by that deadline. The market's 89% probability on 'No' reflects the reality of the stalled peace process.
Introduction
The question of whether Hamas would agree to disarm by December 31, 2025 has been a central point in the Gaza conflict. The Polymarket prediction market allows traders to bet on whether an official disarmament announcement was made by that date. As of our analysis on October 12, 2026, the deadline has long passed, yet the market remains open until January 1, 2027. This editorial examines the evidence from credible sources to assess the likelihood of the 'Yes' outcome.
What to know
The market resolves to 'Yes' if Hamas officially announced it would disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Only formal policy announcements from widely acknowledged leadership qualify. Partial or staged disarmament counts if part of an acknowledged process.
Multiple independent sources report that while a ceasefire deal was reached in October 2025 (a year before this analysis), it did not include a disarmament commitment from Hamas. AP News (Oct 10, 2026) notes that the original ceasefire was an extension of an earlier truce and called for disarmament only in future phases. In July 2026, U.S. President Trump announced a new deal where Hamas confirmed for the first time that it had agreed to disarm, but this was explicitly linked to Israeli withdrawal and cessation of strikes. The Washington Post (Oct 10, 2026) and Reuters (Oct 5, 2026) confirm that the July deal was conditional and immediately rejected by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. No credible reporting mentions any official disarmament announcement by Hamas prior to December 31, 2025. The July 2026 statement—the only known disarmament acknowledgment—came well after the deadline.
Furthermore, The Times of Israel (Oct 12, 2026) describes continued suffering in Gaza with unemployment near 80% and no progress on disarmament. UN News (Sep 28, 2026) states that the disarmament phase of the peace plan remains unimplemented. The weight of evidence is clear: no official Hamas disarmament announcement occurred by the December 31, 2025 deadline.
The market numbers
| Outcome | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
| Yes | 11.0% |
| No | 89.0% |
The market has attracted over $3.8 million in volume and currently shows 89% probability for 'No'. This aligns well with the factual situation, though the 11% on 'Yes' may reflect residual uncertainty about resolution criteria or the slim chance of a retroactive recognition.
The factors at play
- Deadline passed: The December 31, 2025 deadline is over 10 months in the past. No credible source reports any official disarmament announcement by that date.
- July 2026 conditional agreement: The only disarmament statement from Hamas came in July 2026, conditional on Israeli withdrawal and an end to strikes. This is after the deadline and not a formal, unconditional policy announcement.
- Netanyahu's rejection: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu explicitly rejected the July 2026 deal, insisting on complete disarmament before any withdrawal. This stalemate prevents implementation.
- Continued hostilities: As of October 2026, Israeli strikes continue in Gaza. The Orlando Sentinel (Oct 12, 2026) reports over 1,400 Palestinian fatalities since the ceasefire took effect, indicating no disarmament has occurred.
- Market confidence: The 89% 'No' probability suggests traders widely agree that the condition was not met.
Our prediction
According to our analysis, the most likely outcome is No. Polymarket currently assigns a probability of 89%, while our internal estimate is 98%. The difference stems from the fact that the deadline has unequivocally passed without any official disarmament announcement; the 11% residual probability in the market likely overprices the chance of an unexpected resolution in favor of 'Yes', such as a reinterpretation of the market rules or a belated announcement being accepted. However, based on all available evidence, the 'No' outcome is virtually certain.
Risks and uncertainties
The primary risk is that the market's resolution committee might interpret the July 2026 conditional statement as meeting the criteria if they consider it an official announcement, even though it occurred after the deadline and was conditional. Another risk is the possibility of new information emerging before the market closes on January 1, 2027—for example, evidence that Hamas made a qualifying statement before December 31, 2025 that was not widely reported. However, given the intensive media coverage and the lack of any such report from credible sources, this appears extremely unlikely.
Conclusion
The Polymarket prediction market asking whether Hamas would officially disarm by December 31, 2025 is heavily tilted toward 'No' at 89%. All credible reporting confirms that no such announcement was made by that deadline. The most notable development—Hamas's conditional agreement to disarm in July 2026—came too late and with conditions that have not been met. The market's probability accurately reflects reality, and the 'No' outcome is the only logical conclusion.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, political or investment advice, betting advice, or any operational recommendation.