Editorial
Every day we publish three analyses — politics, finance and sports — based on the most popular Polymarket events and verified sources.
Polymarket gives Abiy Ahmed a 97.5% probability of remaining Prime Minister after the June 2026 elections, despite a new rebel alliance formed to oust him. Our analysis estimates a slightly lower 92% probability, given the escalating instability and the risk of a delayed or disrupted transition.
Our prediction
Abiy Ahmed 92% · confidence medium
The Polymarket event 'Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?' shows a 3.4% implied probability for invasion by end of 2025. Recent diplomatic and oil deals between the US and Venezuela, including a landmark agreement giving the US control of over 65 billion barrels of oil reserves, strongly reduce the likelihood of military conflict. Our analysis aligns with the market, estimating a 2% probability of invasion.
Our prediction
No 98% · confidence high
Polymarket's 'Next Prime Minister of Romania?' market shows Alexandru Nazare as favorite (33.9%) after Siegfried Mureșan's nomination was rejected by the Social Democrats. Our analysis suggests Nazare is the most likely outcome, with a 35% probability.
Our prediction
Alexandru Nazare 35% · confidence medium
Ethereum has surged past $2,600 in mid-September 2026, driven by whale buying and short squeeze. Polymarket data gives a 74.5% chance of ETH reaching $2,700 by month-end. Our analysis supports this high probability, with a 90% internal estimate, though risks include Fed rate hikes and regulatory uncertainty.
Our prediction
↑ 2,700 90% · confidence high
Russia's 2026 parliamentary election is underway, with United Russia expected to retain its supermajority. Polymarket gives the ruling party a 99.8% chance of winning the most seats.
Our prediction
United Russia (ER) 98% · confidence high
The Berlin state election on September 20, 2026, sees the Left Party (Linke) as the frontrunner according to Polymarket, with a 66.5% probability of winning the most seats. The CDU trails at 26.5%, while the far-right AfD is an outsider at 6.2%.
Our prediction
Linke 60% · confidence medium
Polymarket traders are nearly split on whether the Fed will hike 25 bps in October 2026 (49.5% Yes, 48.5% No). Goldman Sachs reversed its call to expect another hike, and the Fed's dot plot median points to one more increase this year. However, Warsh kept options open, leaving uncertainty.
Our prediction
25 bps increase 55% · confidence medium
The Polymarket event 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...?' shows a 100% probability of a 14-day pause starting by September 30, 2026. However, recent reports indicate that ceasefire talks are stalled and fighting continues, making a sustained pause unlikely in the near term.
Our prediction
No 70% · confidence medium
Polymarket traders assign a 91.3% probability to WTI hitting $105 in September 2026, driven by Middle East escalation and supply fears. However, record US production and potential de-escalation talks pose downside risks.
Our prediction
↑ $105 85% · confidence medium
Polymarket gives a 15.5% probability that the Israel-Hamas ceasefire will be cancelled by October 31, 2025. Our analysis, based on recent Israeli strikes, ongoing violations, and diplomatic efforts, estimates a lower 10% chance, as both sides appear reluctant to formally end the truce despite tensions.
Our prediction
No 90% · confidence medium
Polymarket shows Democrats with a 53.5% chance of winning the Senate in 2026, while Republicans stand at 47.5%. Recent polls and analysis indicate a toss-up race, with Democrats gaining momentum in key states like Texas, Maine, and Michigan.
Our prediction
Democratic Party 55% · confidence medium
Polymarket gives an 11% probability that a verified Epstein client list will be released by December 31, 2025. Our analysis, based on recent DOJ unresponsiveness, ongoing litigation, and political dynamics, estimates a lower 5% chance.
Our prediction
October 31 5% · confidence medium
