In brief
The Strait of Hormuz traffic is highly unlikely to return to normal by July 31 due to ongoing US-Iran military strikes, Iran's declared closure, and very low transit numbers. The prediction market reflects this with a 98.7% probability of No.
Introduction
The war between the United States and Iran has escalated sharply in July 2026, with renewed airstrikes, Iranian attacks on commercial vessels, and a declared closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic through the strategic waterway — through which about a fifth of global oil once passed — has plummeted to multi-week lows. The Polymarket event asks whether the 7-day moving average of daily transit calls (as measured by IMF Portwatch) will reach 60 or more by July 31. With only 15 days left, the market assigns a 1.4% probability to Yes.
What to know
This market resolves to Yes if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. The types of ships counted include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker vessels. Resolution is based solely on IMF Portwatch data, available at portwatch.imf.org.
Recent data shows extremely low traffic. On July 12, 2026, only six vessels transited the strait, the lowest number in five weeks, according to ship-tracking data from Kpler cited by Reuters. On July 11, Iran's navy declared the Strait of Hormuz closed until further notice, as reported by Deutsche Welle. The US and Iran have exchanged fresh waves of strikes: CENTCOM confirmed new attacks on July 12 and 13, hitting dozens of targets, per CBS News.
Diplomatic efforts are underway. Qatari mediators are in Iran, and Iranian officials are expected to travel to Oman for talks on July 18, according to CBS News. However, the security situation remains dire. President Trump announced a reimposed naval blockade on Iranian ships and demanded a 20% fee from other vessels for protection, as reported by CNBC.
Even before the latest escalation, the IEA had warned that a full recovery of flows would take months (WSJ, June 17). The current situation is far worse, with Iran actively attacking ships and laying mines, as noted by Al Jazeera. The 7-day moving average required for a Yes resolution (60) is far above the recent single-day counts of six to 34 vessels.
The market numbers
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.4% |
| No | 98.7% |
Total volume: $16,949,026. Total liquidity: $734,175. The market closes July 31, 2026.
The factors at play
- Military escalation: US and Iran are engaged in active strikes, with Iran attacking commercial vessels and the US retaliating. This deters shipping and raises insurance costs.
- Iran's declared closure: Iran's navy has closed the strait until further notice, enforcing a northern route that most commercial operators are unwilling to use.
- Very low transit numbers: Only six vessels on July 12, far below the 60 threshold. The 7-day moving average would need to average over 60 daily for at least a week — extremely unlikely given current conditions.
- Time constraint: Only 15 days remain until July 31. Even if a ceasefire were reached tomorrow, rebuilding traffic to 60+ daily average would take weeks.
- Diplomatic efforts: Qatari and Omani mediation is ongoing, but no breakthrough has been reported. Talks scheduled for July 18 are the best hope, but unlikely to produce immediate results.
- Market sentiment: The odds have fallen from ~3% to 1.4% in recent days, aligning with the deteriorating situation (Benzinga).
Our prediction
According to our analysis, the most likely outcome is No. Polymarket currently assigns a probability of 98.7%, while our internal estimate is 99%. The difference is negligible; the market is well-calibrated. The combination of active hostilities, Iran's closure, extremely low transit counts, and the short time horizon makes a Yes resolution virtually impossible. The small gap between our estimate and the market reflects the remote chance of a sudden diplomatic deal that could reopen the strait and trigger a rapid but unlikely surge in traffic within the timeframe.
Risks and uncertainties
- Sudden diplomatic breakthrough: A surprise ceasefire could lead to immediate reopening and a spike in traffic, though reaching 60 average in 15 days is improbable.
- Data revisions: IMF Portwatch may revise previously published data, potentially pushing a past 7-day average above 60. However, the market's resolution rules account for revisions within the timeframe.
- Data integrity issues: If erroneous data is published, the market may delay resolution by up to three days, but this does not change the underlying reality.
- Alternative routes: Some ships may transit with transponders off, not counted by IMF Portwatch. The resolution source explicitly excludes such data.
Conclusion
The Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 31 is a near-certain No. The war shows no signs of de-escalation, traffic is at multi-week lows, and the required threshold is far above current levels. Betting on Yes would be a speculative long shot with almost no evidential support.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, political or investment advice, betting advice, or any operational recommendation.