In brief
Polymarket gives a 0.3% probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal (7-day moving average ≥60 transit calls) by July 15. Renewed US-Iran strikes and vessel attacks have kept traffic low. Our analysis strongly agrees: the outcome is 'No'.
Introduction
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, has been disrupted since the US-Iran war began in late February 2026. A June 18 agreement briefly raised hopes of normalization, but renewed hostilities and vessel attacks have kept traffic far below pre-war levels. Polymarket's prediction market asks: will the 7-day moving average of transit calls reach 60 by July 15? The market says almost certainly not.
What to know
The resolution source is IMF Portwatch, which tracks daily transit calls (container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships) through the Strait of Hormuz. The market resolves to 'Yes' if the 7-day moving average equals or exceeds 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026.
Recent data shows traffic remains severely depressed. On July 13, 2026, Reuters reported that U.S. forces completed another wave of strikes against Iran, and Iran's Revolutionary Guards stopped two ships in the strait by shutting down their systems (Source 1). Earlier, on July 11, Ynetnews noted that more than one-third of 101 vessels crossing Hormuz used the Iranian route, mostly for Iranian oil exports (Source 2).
Earlier in July, the EIA raised its oil production forecast citing recovery after the June 18 agreement (Source 3). On July 6, Windward reported 16 outbound vessels transiting Hormuz (Source 4). Axios noted on June 29 that traffic jumped but then pulled back after a container ship was struck (Source 5). Vice President Vance claimed on June 30 that oil flow had returned to pre-war levels, but acknowledged total traffic remained a fraction of the pre-war daily average of 100-120 (Source 6).
On June 26, CNN reported 70 vessels transited on June 24, the highest since the war began, but noted the spike might be temporary (Source 7). The Energy Secretary on June 21 said traffic was 'already back to normal' (Source 8), but CNBC on June 19 reported 20 tankers transited on June 18, the highest since June 2 (Source 9). The Jerusalem Post on June 22 noted traffic plunged to 5 vessels on June 21 after Iran re-closed the strait (Source 10).
Earlier reports from June 16-24 showed traffic of 25-31 crossings per day (Source 11, Source 12, Source 13, Source 14, Source 15). None of these reports indicate a 7-day moving average of 60 or more.
The market numbers
| Outcome | Implied probability |
|---|---|
| Yes | 0.3% |
| No | 99.8% |
Total volume: $10,254,954. Total liquidity: $909,971. The market closes July 15, 2026.
The factors at play
- Renewed US-Iran strikes: As of July 13, U.S. forces completed another wave of strikes, and Iran stopped two ships (Source 1).
- Vessel attacks: A container ship was struck on June 26, and Iran fired on a Taiwanese-operated ship (Source 5, Source 15).
- Iranian control: Iran declared the strait closed and has been stopping ships (Source 1).
- Traffic data: Recent reports show daily crossings in the tens, not the 100+ needed for a 7-day average of 60 (Source 4, Source 10).
- Time constraint: The market closes July 15, leaving only 1 day for a dramatic recovery.
Our prediction
According to our analysis, the most likely outcome is No. Polymarket currently assigns a probability of 99.8%, while our internal estimate is 99.9%. The difference stems from the overwhelming evidence that traffic remains far below the 60-threshold, with renewed hostilities and vessel attacks making a sudden recovery within one day virtually impossible.
Risks and uncertainties
- Data revision: IMF Portwatch could revise previously published data upward, potentially pushing the 7-day average above 60.
- Unexpected ceasefire: A sudden, credible ceasefire could trigger a surge in traffic, but no such development is reported.
- Data integrity issues: The market allows for corrections if erroneous data is identified, but this is unlikely to change the outcome.
Conclusion
The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by July 15 is extremely unlikely. Renewed US-Iran strikes, Iranian vessel seizures, and persistently low daily transit calls make the 'No' outcome nearly certain. Polymarket's 99.8% probability reflects this reality.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, political or investment advice, betting advice, or any operational recommendation.