In brief
United Russia is the favorite to gain the most seats in the September 2026 Russian parliamentary election, with a 56.5% probability on Polymarket. However, a recent decline in President Putin's approval ratings and a deepening gas crisis introduce significant uncertainty, making New People (36.9%) a credible challenger.
Introduction
Russia's next State Duma election is scheduled for September 2026. The Polymarket event asks which political party will gain the most seats compared to the previous election. While United Russia has dominated Russian politics for years, recent data shows a notable drop in President Putin's approval rating and growing economic pressure from a gas crisis, potentially reshaping the political landscape.
What to know
The election will determine the composition of the State Duma, the lower house of the Russian parliament. According to Kyiv Post (July 17, 2026), Putin's approval rating fell 5% in one week, the steepest decline since the 2022 mobilization crisis. State-run VTsIOM recorded a decline to 65.1%, down from 70.4% in mid-June. Trust in the president also slipped to 71%.
Separately, Eurasia Review (July 15, 2026) reports that Russia's gas crisis is deepening, with regional governors pushing for more autonomy in fuel management, challenging central authority. This economic strain could erode support for the ruling party.
The market numbers
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| United Russia (ER) | 56.5% |
| New People (NL) | 36.9% |
| Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) | 4.1% |
| Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) | 2.6% |
| A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) | 0.4% |
| Rodina | 0.1% |
| Civic Platform (GP) | 0.1% |
Total volume on this market is $15.5 million, with $1.6 million in liquidity. The market closes on September 20, 2026.
The factors at play
- Putin's approval decline: The sharp drop in Putin's ratings could weaken United Russia's coattails, as the party is closely tied to the president.
- Gas crisis: Economic hardship from the gas crisis may boost opposition parties like New People, which positions itself as a reformist alternative.
- State control: Despite the polls, the Russian electoral system heavily favors the ruling party, limiting the impact of public opinion shifts.
- New People's rise: New People has gained traction as a modern, anti-corruption force, and its 36.9% probability reflects a real chance of outperforming expectations.
Our prediction
According to our analysis, the most likely outcome is United Russia (ER). Polymarket currently assigns a probability of 56.5%, while our internal estimate is 55%. The difference stems from these factors: we weigh the recent approval drop and gas crisis more heavily, but also recognize the institutional advantages United Russia enjoys, such as media control and administrative resources.
Risks and uncertainties
- Electoral manipulation: Official results may not reflect true voter preferences, but the market resolves on official data.
- Escalation of gas crisis: A further deterioration could trigger a political shock, boosting New People or other parties.
- Unexpected foreign policy event: A new conflict or sanctions could shift public opinion rapidly.
- Low turnout: Apathy could disproportionately affect United Russia's base.
Conclusion
United Russia remains the favorite to gain the most seats in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election, but the race is tighter than in previous cycles. The combination of a presidential approval slump and an economic crisis gives New People a realistic path to an upset. The market's 56.5% for United Russia reflects a cautious bet on continuity, but the risks are real.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, political or investment advice, betting advice, or any operational recommendation.