In brief
Gadi Eisenkot, former IDF chief and leader of the centrist Yashar party, is the Polymarket favorite (52%) to become Israel's next prime minister after the October 27, 2026 election. Incumbent Benjamin Netanyahu (Likud) trails at 34.5%. Recent polls show a dead heat between the two, but opposition blocs hold a narrow majority in seat projections.
Introduction
Israel is heading to the polls on October 27, 2026, in what many analysts describe as a referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu's long tenure. The election comes nearly three years after the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, and amid ongoing wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. The Polymarket event 'Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?' has attracted over $30 million in volume, reflecting intense global interest in the outcome.
What to know
Israel's Knesset dissolved on July 17, 2026, after completing its first full term since 1988 (Al Jazeera). The election date was confirmed as October 27, 2026 (Reuters).
The main challenger is Gadi Eisenkot, a former IDF chief of staff whose son and two nephews were killed fighting in Gaza. His Yashar party has surged in polls, overtaking Likud for the first time in July 2026 (The Guardian). A Channel 12 poll published July 27, 2026 projects Yashar winning 23 seats, the largest faction (Haaretz). However, a separate poll shows Eisenkot and Netanyahu tied at 38% as best candidate for prime minister (Jerusalem Post).
Netanyahu remains a formidable figure, with his Likud party polling around 23 seats. He has signaled he 'intends to win' (France 24). The opposition bloc holds a projected 65 seats versus 54 for the current coalition, according to The Economist's tracker (The Economist). However, a boycott of Arab parties by some opposition leaders could leave the anti-Netanyahu bloc one seat short of a majority (Haaretz).
Other candidates include former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett (6.5% on Polymarket), who has formed an alliance with Yair Lapid, and Avigdor Lieberman (4%). Far-right figures like Itamar Ben Gvir (0.8%) and Gideon Sa'ar (0.4%) trail significantly.
The market numbers
| Outcome | Polymarket Probability |
|---|---|
| Gadi Eizenkot | 52.0% |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 34.5% |
| Naftali Bennett | 6.5% |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 4.0% |
| Itamar Ben Gvir | 0.8% |
| Gideon Sa'ar | 0.4% |
| Yariv Levin | 0.3% |
| Yoaz Hendel | 0.3% |
| Amir Ohana | 0.3% |
| Gilad Erdan | 0.3% |
Total volume: $30,207,109.90 | Total liquidity: $2,059,710.96 | Market closes: 2026-12-31
The factors at play
- Coalition math: Even if Eisenkot's Yashar wins the most seats, forming a government requires 61 Knesset members. The opposition bloc currently holds a projected 65 seats, but internal divisions—especially regarding cooperation with Arab parties—could complicate coalition building.
- Netanyahu's resilience: Despite corruption trials and public anger over October 7, Netanyahu retains a loyal base and has successfully passed legislation to secure support from ultra-Orthodox parties.
- Eisenkot's appeal: His military background and personal loss in Gaza give him credibility on security issues, while his centrist positioning attracts voters tired of polarization.
- Timing and war fatigue: Nearly three years of war in multiple theaters have eroded support for Netanyahu, but also create uncertainty that could benefit a steady hand like Eisenkot.
- Potential for deadlock: If neither bloc can form a government, Israel could face another election, which would delay the resolution of this market.
Our prediction
According to our analysis, the most likely outcome is Gadi Eizenkot. Polymarket currently assigns a probability of 52%, while our internal estimate is 55%. The difference stems from these factors: recent polls show the opposition bloc with a clear majority, and Eisenkot's personal ratings are strong. However, the risk of coalition failure—if Arab parties are excluded—keeps our estimate only slightly above the market.
Risks and uncertainties
- Coalition breakdown: Even if Eisenkot wins the most seats, he may fail to form a government if right-wing or religious parties refuse to join a centrist-led coalition.
- Netanyahu's comeback: The prime minister has defied political obituaries before. A security crisis or a split in the opposition could revive his chances.
- New elections: If no government is formed by December 31, 2027, the market resolves to 'Other,' which is not listed as a candidate but is a real possibility.
- Polling error: The margin of error in recent polls (4.4%) means the race could be closer than it appears.
- External events: Escalation in the Iran war or a major terrorist attack could shift voter sentiment rapidly.
Conclusion
The Israeli election is a genuine toss-up, with Gadi Eisenkot holding a slight edge in both polls and Polymarket odds. The market's 52% probability for Eisenkot appears reasonable, reflecting both his lead in seat projections and the significant hurdles to forming a stable government. Netanyahu remains a serious threat, and the possibility of prolonged political deadlock cannot be dismissed.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, political or investment advice, betting advice, or any operational recommendation.