In brief
Aryna Sabalenka is the clear favorite to win the 2026 US Open women's singles title, with Polymarket odds at 28%. She is the two-time defending champion and leads a strong field. Other top contenders include Elena Rybakina, Iga Swiatek, and Coco Gauff, but Sabalenka's hard-court dominance makes her the player to beat.
Introduction
The 2026 US Open women's singles tournament is set to begin on August 23, with the final scheduled for September 13. The event will feature a deep field of Grand Slam champions, led by two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka. Polymarket traders have placed over $6 million in volume on the winner market, with Sabalenka commanding a 28% implied probability. This article analyzes the market, the key contenders, and the factors that could determine the champion.
What to know
The 2026 US Open women's singles main draw includes 128 players, with direct entries based on the July 20 rankings. According to the WTA, the entry list is headlined by Aryna Sabalenka, the two-time defending champion, and includes Australian Open champion Elena Rybakina, 2023 US Open winner Coco Gauff, Roland Garros winner Mirra Andreeva, and six-time Grand Slam champion Iga Swiatek (Source 5). The AP confirms that Sabalenka and Wimbledon winner Jannik Sinner lead the fields (Source 4). Notably, Sabalenka has also entered the mixed doubles with Novak Djokovic, as reported by Olympics.com and The Athletic (Source 1, Source 2). The tournament runs from August 23 to September 13, with the main draw starting August 25 (Source 3).
The market numbers
Polymarket's event has a total volume of $6,198,606 and liquidity of $1,076,324. The market closes on September 13, 2026. Below are the top 10 outcomes and their implied probabilities:
| Outcome | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
| Aryna Sabalenka | 28.0% |
| Elena Rybakina | 9.3% |
| Iga Swiatek | 8.5% |
| Coco Gauff | 8.5% |
| Mirra Andreeva | 6.3% |
| Naomi Osaka | 5.1% |
| Linda Noskova | 4.3% |
| Jessica Pegula | 4.0% |
| Amanda Anisimova | 3.5% |
| Karolina Muchova | 3.3% |
Sabalenka's 28% is more than triple the next closest contender, reflecting strong market confidence.
The factors at play
- Sabalenka's form and history: As two-time defending champion, Sabalenka has proven her ability on the US Open hard courts. Her recent mixed doubles entry with Djokovic suggests she is healthy and focused (Source 1).
- Depth of the field: The tournament features multiple Grand Slam winners, including Swiatek, Gauff, Osaka, and Rybakina, any of whom could catch fire and win (Source 5).
- Injury and withdrawal risks: Several top players have recently dealt with injuries. Carlos Alcaraz is recovering from a wrist injury, and Jannik Sinner withdrew from the Canadian Open, though they are not in the women's field (Source 1). For women, any late withdrawal could reshuffle the draw.
- Surface and conditions: The US Open is played on hard courts, which favor powerful players like Sabalenka and Rybakina. However, conditions in New York can be humid and windy, potentially neutralizing some advantages.
- Market efficiency: Polymarket's odds reflect collective wisdom, but the 28% for Sabalenka may be slightly inflated due to her name recognition and recent success.
Our prediction
According to our analysis, the most likely outcome is Aryna Sabalenka. Polymarket currently assigns a probability of 28%, while our internal estimate is 32%. The difference stems from these factors: Sabalenka's exceptional hard-court record, her status as two-time defending champion, and the lack of a clear rival who can consistently challenge her on this surface. However, the field is deep, and upsets are common in women's tennis, which tempers our confidence.
Risks and uncertainties
- Upset potential: In Grand Slams, lower-ranked players often defeat favorites. A player like Mirra Andreeva or Linda Noskova could have a breakout tournament.
- Injury or illness: A late injury or illness could derail Sabalenka's campaign, as seen with other top players in recent majors.
- Draw difficulty: A tough draw could force Sabalenka to face multiple top-10 players early, increasing the chance of an upset.
- Mental pressure: As the heavy favorite and defending champion, Sabalenka may face added pressure that could affect her performance.
- Weather and scheduling: Rain delays or extreme heat could disrupt rhythm and favor certain players.
Conclusion
Aryna Sabalenka enters the 2026 US Open as the clear favorite, backed by her recent dominance and strong hard-court game. While the field is deep and risks exist, her consistency and experience make her the most likely winner. Polymarket's 28% probability is reasonable, but our analysis suggests a slightly higher chance given her form and the lack of a dominant rival.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, political or investment advice, betting advice, or any operational recommendation.