In brief
Polymarket's 'IPOs before 2027?' market assigns the highest probability to SHEIN (89.6%), followed by Anthropic (68.5%) and Discord (32.3%). Recent reports indicate that OpenAI may delay its IPO until 2027, while Anthropic has filed initial paperwork but no date is confirmed. The market reflects a mix of high-confidence retail favorites and uncertain AI giants.
Introduction
With the calendar approaching the second half of 2026, investors and prediction market participants are closely watching which major private companies will go public before the year ends. Polymarket's 'IPOs before 2027?' event aggregates bets on ten high-profile candidates, from fast-fashion giant SHEIN to AI labs like OpenAI and Anthropic. The market has attracted over $6.8 million in volume, signaling strong interest. This analysis examines the probabilities, recent news, and key factors that could shape the outcome.
What to know
The event resolves to 'Yes' for each company that completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, as confirmed by credible reporting. The market includes a diverse set of companies: SHEIN (fast fashion), Anthropic and OpenAI (AI), Discord (social), Fannie Mae (government-sponsored enterprise), Remote (HR tech), WHOOP (wearables), Applied Intuition (autonomous vehicle software), Rippling (HR software), and Mistral AI (AI).
Recent reporting provides context for some of the AI names. According to the San Francisco Chronicle (July 23, 2026), both OpenAI and Anthropic have filed initial paperwork to go public, but neither has confirmed an IPO date. The New York Times reported that OpenAI may wait until 2027. A Morningstar analysis (July 11, 2026) also discusses the implications of a potential OpenAI delay. Meanwhile, Kalshi traders are betting on an early 2027 announcement for OpenAI, further supporting the delay narrative.
For Anthropic, the SF Chronicle notes that the company has filed initial paperwork, but timing remains uncertain. No recent sources specifically address SHEIN, Discord, or the other candidates, so their probabilities rely primarily on market sentiment and general industry speculation.
The market numbers
| Company | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
| SHEIN | 89.6% |
| Anthropic | 68.5% |
| Discord | 32.3% |
| OpenAI | 20.0% |
| Fannie Mae | 18.5% |
| Remote | 18.0% |
| WHOOP | 17.5% |
| Applied Intuition | 15.4% |
| Rippling | 14.5% |
| Mistral AI | 14.0% |
Data from Polymarket as of July 25, 2026. Total volume: $6,892,760; liquidity: $73,214.
The factors at play
- SHEIN's dominance: With an 89.6% probability, SHEIN is the market's clear favorite. The company has been rumored to be preparing for an IPO for years, and its strong revenue growth and global presence make it a plausible candidate. However, no recent independent sources confirm a specific timeline.
- AI IPO uncertainty: OpenAI and Anthropic have both filed initial paperwork, but recent reporting suggests OpenAI may delay its IPO to 2027. Anthropic's probability (68.5%) is higher, possibly reflecting a belief that it will move faster than OpenAI. Mistral AI, a smaller European player, has a lower probability (14%).
- Discord's steady probability: At 32.3%, Discord is a mid-range contender. The social platform has been exploring a public listing for some time, but no recent news confirms a 2026 timeline.
- Lower-probability names: Fannie Mae, Remote, WHOOP, Applied Intuition, and Rippling all sit between 14-18.5%. These companies face various hurdles, including regulatory issues (Fannie Mae), market conditions, or simply less urgency to go public.
- Market sentiment vs. fundamentals: The probabilities reflect trader sentiment, which can be influenced by rumors, social media, and general market trends. Without recent company announcements, the market may be pricing in optimism that is not yet backed by concrete filings.
Our prediction
According to our analysis, the most likely outcome is SHEIN. Polymarket currently assigns a probability of 89.6%, while our internal estimate is 80%. The difference stems from the lack of recent independent sources confirming SHEIN's IPO timeline. The market's high confidence may be justified by SHEIN's long-anticipated public offering, but without official filings or credible news reports, we assign a slightly lower probability. Among the AI names, Anthropic appears more likely than OpenAI to IPO before 2027, but SHEIN remains the safest bet given its market-leading probability.
Risks and uncertainties
- Lack of confirmation for SHEIN: No recent credible sources discuss SHEIN's IPO plans. If the company delays or faces regulatory hurdles (e.g., scrutiny over labor practices), the probability could drop sharply.
- Macroeconomic conditions: A downturn in equity markets or a shift in investor sentiment toward IPOs could delay multiple candidates.
- Regulatory changes: For Fannie Mae, government policy changes could affect its ability to go public. For AI companies, increased regulatory scrutiny on AI could slow IPO processes.
- M&A or acquisition: The market resolves to 'No' if a company is acquired or ceases to exist. A buyout of any candidate would remove the IPO possibility.
- Information asymmetry: Prediction markets can be influenced by insider knowledge or rumors. The true probabilities may differ from market prices.
Conclusion
The 'IPOs before 2027?' market presents a fascinating snapshot of which private companies traders believe will go public this year. SHEIN leads by a wide margin, but the lack of recent reporting on its plans introduces uncertainty. AI companies like Anthropic and OpenAI have more public visibility but face potential delays. Investors should monitor official filings and credible news sources as the year progresses. The market will resolve on December 31, 2026, leaving five months for surprises.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, political or investment advice, betting advice, or any operational recommendation.