In brief
Jannik Sinner is the clear favorite to win the 2026 US Open men's singles title, with Polymarket odds at 52.5%. The Italian world No. 1 recently won Wimbledon and has shown dominant form on hard courts. Carlos Alcaraz, the second favorite at 22.5%, is recovering from a wrist injury, which could open the door for Sinner or other challengers like Alexander Zverev or Novak Djokovic.
Introduction
The 2026 US Open, scheduled from August 23 to September 13, is the final Grand Slam of the season. The men's singles field is headlined by world No. 1 Jannik Sinner, who just won his second Wimbledon title, and world No. 2 Alexander Zverev. However, the biggest question mark surrounds Carlos Alcaraz, the seven-time major champion, who is nursing a wrist injury. Polymarket's prediction market reflects these dynamics, with Sinner commanding a majority of the probability.
What to know
The US Open is a hard-court Grand Slam tournament held in Flushing Meadows, New York. The men's singles draw features 128 players, with the winner earning 2000 ATP rankings points. According to ATP Tour, Jannik Sinner won the 2026 Wimbledon title, defeating Alexander Zverev in the final. Sinner also won the Australian Open twice and the US Open once, as reported by BBC Sport. The entry list, announced on July 21, includes Sinner, Zverev, Novak Djokovic, and others, but notably, Carlos Alcaraz is listed despite his injury, as per AP News. Alcaraz is still recovering from a wrist injury and has not entered the mixed doubles, according to Olympics.com. Novak Djokovic, at age 39, is partnering Aryna Sabalenka in mixed doubles, as confirmed by The Athletic. Sinner withdrew from the Canadian Open, raising minor fitness concerns, but his Wimbledon victory suggests he is in top form.
The market numbers
Polymarket's event "2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)" has a total volume of $4,699,808 and liquidity of $1,274,209. The market closes on September 13, 2026. Current outcomes and implied probabilities are:
| Outcome | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
| Jannik Sinner | 52.5% |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 22.5% |
| Alexander Zverev | 7.4% |
| Novak Djokovic | 3.8% |
| Taylor Fritz | 2.3% |
| Ben Shelton | 1.6% |
| Daniil Medvedev | 1.4% |
| Andrey Rublev | 1.3% |
| Jakub Mensik | 1.1% |
| Felix Auger Aliassime | 1.1% |
Data from Polymarket.
The factors at play
- Sinner's dominance: World No. 1, two-time Wimbledon champion, and recent hard-court success. He leads the ATP race and has a strong record on hard courts.
- Alcaraz's wrist injury: The Spaniard has not played since Wimbledon and skipped mixed doubles. His recovery timeline is uncertain, and he may not be at 100% for the US Open.
- Zverev's consistency: World No. 2 after Wimbledon, he reached the final there and has improved his Grand Slam performance. He is a threat on hard courts.
- Djokovic's age and focus: At 39, Djokovic is still ranked No. 5 and is playing mixed doubles, which could be a distraction. He has not won a major since 2024.
- Other contenders: Taylor Fritz, Ben Shelton, and Daniil Medvedev are capable but have lower odds. Medvedev and Felix Auger-Aliassime withdrew from the DC Open, possibly indicating rest or minor issues.
- Hard-court specialists: Players like Zverev, Medvedev, and Fritz have strong hard-court credentials, but Sinner's all-court game gives him an edge.
Our prediction
According to our analysis, the most likely outcome is Jannik Sinner. Polymarket currently assigns a probability of 52.5%, while our internal estimate is 62%. The difference stems from these factors: Sinner's recent Wimbledon victory and overall form on hard courts, combined with Carlos Alcaraz's wrist injury which significantly reduces his chances. The market may be underrating Sinner's dominance and overrating Alcaraz's recovery prospects. Additionally, Alexander Zverev has not yet won a Grand Slam, and Novak Djokovic's age and mixed doubles commitment may hinder his singles performance.
Risks and uncertainties
- Sinner's fitness: He withdrew from the Canadian Open, which could indicate a minor injury or fatigue. Any physical issue during the tournament could derail his campaign.
- Alcaraz's recovery: If Alcaraz returns to full fitness, he is a proven champion on hard courts (2022 US Open winner) and could challenge Sinner.
- Zverev's breakthrough: Zverev has been close and could finally win his first major, especially if Sinner or Alcaraz falter.
- Djokovic's resurgence: The 24-time Grand Slam champion cannot be counted out, especially on a surface he has won four times.
- Draw and upsets: The US Open often produces surprises; a lower-ranked player could catch fire and upset the favorites.
Conclusion
Jannik Sinner enters the 2026 US Open as the man to beat. His combination of recent Grand Slam success, world No. 1 ranking, and the injury cloud over Carlos Alcaraz make him the clear favorite. While the Polymarket odds reflect this, we believe the probability is even higher given the current landscape. However, tennis is unpredictable, and factors like fitness, draw, and the resurgence of veterans like Djokovic could alter the outcome. The market will likely adjust as the tournament approaches and more information on player fitness emerges.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, political or investment advice, betting advice, or any operational recommendation.